Promise Tracker

Promises, deadlines, receipts.

Major public predictions from Elon Musk and Tesla, SpaceX and xAI leaders, set against what actually happened. Every quote links to where we read it, and paraphrases are labelled.

–delivered on time
–average delay when delivered late
0promises

Biggest misses

    Recently delivered

      By topic

        How we judge

        • Delivered: done by the stated deadline.
        • Delivered late: done, but after the deadline.
        • In progress: the deadline hasn't passed yet.
        • Missed: the deadline passed without it happening, even if a new date was given later.
        • Revised: the goal or plan was changed, or no deadline was given, so it can't be scored.

        "On time" is Delivered ÷ (Delivered + Delivered late + Missed). Average delay compares each late item's deadline with the date it happened. Vague deadlines ("this year", "a few months") are read as the end of that period, and each card notes the judgment calls. Spotted an error or a better source? Tell us on X. Data: promises.json.

        Photos: Optimus by Steve Jurvetson (CC BY 2.0); Semi by Dllu (CC BY-SA 4.0); Roadster prototype by Smnt (CC BY-SA 4.0); Mars by NASA (public domain); Starship by Steve Jurvetson (CC BY 2.0); Cybercab and Cybertruck by Dllu (CC BY-SA 4.0); Model Y by Damian B Oh and Model 3 by Ethan Llamas (CC BY-SA 4.0). All via Wikimedia Commons, cropped.